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Sorry, I had something come up in my personal life. Soeren E April 26, at 1: We will need to reduce the scope quite a bit, as a cannot commit to an ambitious essay. A good thesis on my part might be there is a negligible chance of humans creating an artificial general intelligence within the next years.
I mean it in the sense that donating to places like MIRI is a waste of money. Douglas Summers-Stay April 27, at 5: I work as an AI researcher, and have some relevant publications.
I could contribute together with Soeren, if you are both want to. What is the existential risk of AI technology compared to other existential risks? My position would be: Even getting to AGI will be very hard and take a very long time.
Even if we get to AGI, it is unlikely that it would be able to recursively self improve. Even if it can recursively self improve, it is unlikely that that self improvement would be exponential. Even if that self improvement is exponential, it is unlikely that it will be exponential for very long.
Again, we can focus on AGI if you want, and I do think it would be interesting to do some sort of first principles write up where we nail down definitions and give the readers a layout of the current state of technology and what needs to happen for AGI.
Soeren E April 27, at To make my claim explicit: I reserve the right to update as I write the essay: Would you be willing to assign a percentage to your belief? I would like to narrow the scope to not consider if MIRI etc.
Also, unless the temporal discount rate is really low, it is not worthwhile to care at all about events in years, even if they are very likely.
Would you be interested in adversarial collaboration with both me and Douglas Summers-Stay? Feel free to email me soeren. Perhaps a better question in regards to this issue is to balance out the perceived probability of developing AGI versus the perceived ability of humans to control said AGI for example, by crafting effective morals testing.
And putting this all in context of something that makes sense to consider technologically, I think, means you have to have a time horizon that is within the potential lived experience of someone reading this blog.
Let's assume a lifespan of 90 years life expectancy has been increasing for humans, but there is no evidence that lifespan is increasing so we should default to a generous assumption of lifespan based on the current non-trend of lifespan stagnation.
That gives until to develop AGI in a time horizon that is meaningful in the sense that we ought to think about doing something soon. Contrast that with the question, "say we developed AGI; how long would it take us to develop the ability to perform effective morality testing on it prior to giving it any kind of power?
If, however, morals testing is hard, and takes years, then we're in a bad way, and should consider panicking. Ultimately, the question we want to answer is, "should we be worried about this taking over and subordinating human control?It looks like you've lost connection to our server.
Please check your internet connection or reload this page. is and in to a was not you i of it the be he his but for are this that by on at they with which she or from had we will have an what been one if would who has her. [ The story of the Tower of Babel is explained in Genesis 11 in just a few verses.
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