Of the great variety of kinds of argumentation used in the law, some are persuasive rather than strictly logical, and others exemplify different procedures in applied logic rather than the formulas of pure logic. From that point onward, a more or less continuous history of such reflection can be traced up to the present day. As is true with the history of philosophy more generally, one can observe over the centuries changes not only in the theories set forth but also in the central questions about law that such theories were meant to answer. Although every philosophical theory is in part a product of the time, place, and culture in which it is developed, the philosophy of law is parochial in an additional sense.
Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to The Singularity — technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history.
The implications include the merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of light.
For complete details, see below.
Until I return to a further explanation, however, do read the first sentence of this paragraph carefully. Now back to the future: Our forebears expected the future to be pretty much like their present, which had been pretty much like their past.
Although exponential trends did exist a thousand years ago, they were at that very early stage where an exponential trend is so flat that it looks like no trend at all. So their lack of expectations was largely fulfilled.
Today, in accordance with the common wisdom, everyone expects continuous technological progress and the social repercussions that follow. But the future will be far more surprising than most observers realize: Bill and I have been frequently paired in a variety of venues as pessimist and optimist respectively.
When people think of a future period, they intuitively assume that the current rate of progress will continue for future periods. However, careful consideration of the pace of technology shows that the rate of progress is not constant, but it is human nature to adapt to the changing pace, so the intuitive view is that the pace will continue at the current rate.
Even for those of us who have been around long enough to experience how the pace increases over time, our unexamined intuition nonetheless provides the impression that progress changes at the rate that we have experienced recently.
So even though the rate of progress in the very recent past e. It is typical, therefore, that even sophisticated commentators, when considering the future, extrapolate the current pace of change over the next 10 years or years to determine their expectations.
But a serious assessment of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential. In exponential growth, we find that a key measurement such as computational power is multiplied by a constant factor for each unit of time e.
Exponential growth is a feature of any evolutionary process, of which technology is a primary example. One can examine the data in different ways, on different time scales, and for a wide variety of technologies ranging from electronic to biological, and the acceleration of progress and growth applies.
What it clearly shows is that technology, particularly the pace of technological change, advances at least exponentially, not linearly, and has been doing so since the advent of technology, indeed since the advent of evolution on Earth.
I emphasize this point because it is the most important failure that would-be prognosticators make in considering future trends. That is why people tend to overestimate what can be achieved in the short term because we tend to leave out necessary detailsbut underestimate what can be achieved in the long term because the exponential growth is ignored.
The Law of Accelerating Returns We can organize these observations into what I call the law of accelerating returns as follows: Evolution applies positive feedback in that the more capable methods resulting from one stage of evolutionary progress are used to create the next stage.
As a result, the rate of progress of an evolutionary process increases exponentially over time. In another positive feedback loop, as a particular evolutionary process e.
This results in a second level of exponential growth i. Biological evolution is one such evolutionary process. Technological evolution is another such evolutionary process.
Indeed, the emergence of the first technology creating species resulted in the new evolutionary process of technology.
Therefore, technological evolution is an outgrowth of—and a continuation of—biological evolution. A specific paradigm a method or approach to solving a problem, e.
When this happens, a paradigm shift i. If we apply these principles at the highest level of evolution on Earth, the first step, the creation of cells, introduced the paradigm of biology.
The subsequent emergence of DNA provided a digital method to record the results of evolutionary experiments. Then, the evolution of a species who combined rational thought with an opposable appendage i. The upcoming primary paradigm shift will be from biological thinking to a hybrid combining biological and nonbiological thinking.
If we examine the timing of these steps, we see that the process has continuously accelerated. The evolution of life forms required billions of years for the first steps e. During the Cambrian explosion, major paradigm shifts took only tens of millions of years.
Later on, Humanoids developed over a period of millions of years, and Homo sapiens over a period of only hundreds of thousands of years. With the advent of a technology-creating species, the exponential pace became too fast for evolution through DNA-guided protein synthesis and moved on to human-created technology.You will get $40 trillion just by reading this essay and understanding what it says.
For complete details, see below. (It’s true that authors will do just about anything to . The Fallacies of Egoism and Altruism, and the Fundamental Principle of Morality (after Kant and Nelson) I have not done wrong.
The "Negative Confession" or Protestation of Ani, The Egyptian Book of the Dead, The Book of Going Forth by Day, The Complete Papyrus of Ani, Featuring Integrated Text and Full-Color Images, translated by Dr.
. The Free Lunch Is Over A Fundamental Turn Toward Concurrency in Software. By Herb Sutter. The biggest sea change in software development since the OO revolution is knocking at the door, and its name is Concurrency.
John Locke (—) John Locke was among the most famous philosophers and political theorists of the 17 th century. He is often regarded as the founder of a school of thought known as British Empiricism, and he made foundational contributions to modern theories of limited, liberal government.
Law: Meaning, Features, Sources and Types of Law! State is sovereign. Sovereignty is its exclusive and most important element. It is the supreme power of the state over all its people and territories.
The State exercises its sovereign power through its laws. The Government of the State is basically.
I have been working on an upcoming post about megatrends and how they drive tech. I had included the end of Moore’s Law to illustrate how the end of a megatrend might also have a big influence on tech, but that section got away from me, becoming much larger than the sections on each individual current megatrend. Hegel: Social and Political Thought. Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel () is one of the greatest systematic thinkers in the history of Western philosophy. I have been working on an upcoming post about megatrends and how they drive tech. I had included the end of Moore’s Law to illustrate how the end of a megatrend might also have a big influence on tech, but that section got away from me, becoming much larger than the .
Pre-Law Advisor Undergraduate institutions often assign a person to act as an advisor to current and former students who are interested in pursuing a legal education.